Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Trade idea index and forex

Index SPY (108.58)

Current situation: Moving averages (EMA) with a period of 13 and 26 indicate an upward trend. Index tested the long-term EMA (26) in the area 106,80. Expect movement of the index SPY within 104,50-111,50. In the medium-term chart is to be treated for purchase until the moving averages cross.

On the daily chart MACD-histogram is reduced, the Stochastic is oversold, which opens up good opportunities for purchase under the direction of the trend.

Scenarios for February: Aggressive traders can open purchase from the current levels and stop below 107,00 the purpose of the upper boundary of the price channel 113,50 (blue line on the daily chart). Conservative traders could wait for the growth of MACD-histogram or Stochastic growth above 20.

Crude oil Light (74.57)

Current situation: At the weekly chart of moving averages parallel and do not intersect - the trend is rising (only consider a purchase. On the daily chart MACD-histogram rises, and the Stochastic came from the oversold zone, indicating the probable continuation of the upward trend.

Scenarios for February: Interesting purchases in case of growth above 75, with a stop just below 72,50 and target near the upper border of the price channel (now 79).

Gold (1106.20)

Current situation: the Trend is ascending. Rates tested the long-term EMA (26) in the region of $1070 per ounce and is currently tortured continue an upward trend. On the daily chart are seeing a bullish divergence, which increases the probability of growth. We recommend to consider only the purchase.

Scenarios for February: Stochastic testing the oversold territory, began to grow, while the MACD-histogram leveled. The probability of growth is very high. Recommend considering buying from the current levels or slightly below 1095, with a stop just below 1070 and target near the upper border of the price channel (now 1133).

EUR/USD: (1.3861)

Medium-term picture (6-12 months): The medium-term trend of chart of the EUR/USD - side in the range 1.37 - 1.51. Long-term picture for 2010 was described in the release of 11.01.2010. For the last 2 months Euro almost completely squandered their achievements growth since July 2009. Then, after the consolidation range 1.37-1.44, course fired 700 points up (the width of the range) and reached in November, the maximum level of 2009, 1.5144. Since then started a correction that already in January 2010 has resulted in more than 1,200 пунктовому reduction. If we take into account the above mid range, the pair is now in its lower part. Armed with linear-тренодовым assay can notice the actual achievement of the upper boundary of the triangle 2008-2009, which was broken in 2009 before achievement of annual maxima. Now the achievement of this border is the lower limit of the expected range of fluctuations, which reinforces the expectation of the potential support in the vicinity of the 1.3700/3800. Also don't forget about the Fibonacci levels - there is 50% of the total growth in 2009.

Scenarios for February: the Main support - 1.37-38 (upper limit previously punched a triangle, and 50% growth over 2009). Breakthrough down gives the top-down scenario from a distant goal of 1000 points down (is unlikely and may be likely to 1.35 - 61.8% Fibo). While that can be expected to bounce from support that will give some upward correction in the middle areas from the high of 2009, i.e. up to 1.44-1.46, or slightly higher - up to 1.49 (district trendline breakout from March 2009). However, later on we can expect another wave of decline.

Trade ideas: Purchase of interest in case of confirmation of support in the area of 1.37-38. Stop 1.3650, goal - 1.45. Sales are also interesting, but not with the current levels, and after some correction up - for example from the area of 1.45-46 with a stop at 1.4900 and purpose has been achieved at least until such correction.

GBP/USD (1.5983)

Medium-term picture (6-12 months): Medium-term trend GBP/USD - side in the range of 1.57 - 1.70, which was formed in the summer of 2009. The pair is below the critical long-term resistance levels, which could not overcome in 2009 and сконсолидировалась in the specified range. The situation is such that we are now seeing a correction and fluctuations of the pair within the correctional downward channel (see brown dotted line). Both the channel confirmed, parallel and may represent an important support and resistance levels for future fluctuations of the pair. Take into consideration also the internal channel of the oscillations (see the green dotted line), breach of the lower border of which will lead to the achievement of the lower border of the bearish channel.

Scenarios for February: Ongoing support - 1.5900/50. Breakthrough down gives a certain extension of a sideways range and reduction to 1.55 (the lower boundary of the correction downward channel). Drop even below gives a goal in the area of 1.47-48. Any rebound will have a purpose on a punched support, then again to expect the decrease (steps). Nearest important resistance - 1.6700/50 (uptrend fluctuations), which in any case can be expected to roll back.

Trade ideas: Sale of interest in: 1) breakdown down 1.59, stop 1.61, goal 1.55; 2) achieve 1.67, stop 1.70, goal - 1.55; 3) breakdown down 1.55, stop 1.57, the purpose of 1.48.

USD/JPY (90.26)

Medium-term picture (6-12 months): Trend of the dollar against the yen, falling since April 2009, after reaching the annual maximum 2009 at the level of 101.43. Since the persistently сснижался even installed in November 2009, the new multi least at the level of 84.80. Distant goal is clear - this is a historic low of 1995, 79.75. However, its achievement you can't expect the next few months - pair first need to understand the sentiment at the local levels. Long-term downward trend line from the top of 2007 (124.10), which is located in the area of the 93rd figure, a role it played in this year, the pair reached her and while rollback 450 points downward, meaning from the expected earlier resistance actually there is a strong pressure. This trend is the upper limit of large descending triangle, the lower boundary of which is a line to a minimum 2004-2008-2009's. the Border is quite serious and may further serve as a good reason for the movement in case of breakdown of one of them. Potential improvement - not less than 2000 items.

Scenarios for February: Expect fluctuations in the framework of a triangle with the current boundaries 84-85 (support) and 93-94 (resistance). The nearest support 89.00 - crossing the borders between the two локальныз channels. The nearest resistance is the upper bound of the triangle and trend-2007 - 93.00. Break up is not expected, more likely until the break of down, which may reduce to the bottom border triangle.

Trade ideas: Sale of interest from 93.00, goal - 85.00, stop - 95.00.

USD/CAD (1.0703)

Medium-term picture (6-12 months): Medium-term (and long term), the trend of the USD/CAD is downward, since March 2009 (as well as with the historical summit ~1.6200 in 2002), in the form of a rebound from the border of 18 years ascending channel fluctuations, punched in 2004. The lower limit of the channel (see red line from the top) is an important long-term resistance, from which the couple throughout 2009 left almost 3,000 points down. In the near future trend may change as reaching a level support 1.02, and linear boundary ibid, steam ceased to decrease and may move to the side fluctuations, and can be and to grow. For the last month have already been breached, nearest local resistance line, which described a downward trend since August 2008, and now the couple can move on to more aggressive actions concerning growth.

Scenarios for February: the Main support - at least 2010, 1.0224, and linear boundary, 1.04. The nearest support - punched trend (see dashed blue) 1.06. The rebound of it already gives growth and can lead to achievement of the first 1.08, and then higher regions above 1.10. Reduction under 1.06 can give another decrease to 1.02 - 1.04.

Trade ideas: Short-term buying interest almost from the current levels or slightly below - from the 1.0600/50, stop 1.04, objective 1.10. For longer term traders, the goal may be district 1.15-16, stop 1.015, but at a lower pair to 1.03-04 you can try speculation.